Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 536 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 536 BNA 05:36 → DCA 08:30 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3821 BNA 16:41 → DCA 19:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 536 Southwest	BNA 05:36	DCA 08:30	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
YX 4766 Republic	BNA 06:00	DCA 09:02	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
YX 5835 Republic	BNA 06:01	DCA 09:03	6%	2%	1.1%	no record
YX 5857 Republic	BNA 11:46	DCA 14:48	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 322 Southwest	BNA 11:31	DCA 14:25	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
YX 5861 Republic	BNA 17:05	DCA 20:07	16%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 4374 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 15:06	DCA 18:08	17%	4%	0.9%	73%
WN 537 Southwest	BNA 14:10	DCA 17:04	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 10:41	DCA 13:44	19%	8%	1.9%	60%
MQ 3765 Envoy	BNA 16:38	DCA 19:34	22%	5%	2.1%	no record
WN 3821 Southwest	BNA 16:41	DCA 19:35	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON