Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 541 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 541 BNA 05:50 → DEN 07:47 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1535 BNA 16:41 → DEN 18:32 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 541 Southwest	BNA 05:50	DEN 07:47	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1716 United Flight history →	BNA 07:00	DEN 08:55	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1327 Southwest	BNA 08:11	DEN 10:06	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 502 United Flight history →	BNA 10:26	DEN 12:23	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 3292 Southwest	BNA 12:27	DEN 14:20	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 393 United	BNA 19:57	DEN 22:12	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1766 United Flight history →	BNA 14:29	DEN 16:29	19%	4%	0.6%	80%
F9 1401 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 15:04	DEN 17:02	22%	5%	0.8%	77%
WN 2210 Southwest	BNA 14:42	DEN 16:33	23%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 547 Southwest	BNA 18:11	DEN 20:03	23%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2201 United Flight history →	BNA 17:27	DEN 19:19	25%	4%	0.6%	66%
WN 1535 Southwest	BNA 16:41	DEN 18:32	32%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON