Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 849 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 849 BNA 05:59 → DFW 08:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3051 BNA 19:03 → DFW 21:12 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 849 American	BNA 05:59	DFW 08:06	5%	2%	1.1%	no record
AA 2787 American Flight history →	BNA 06:01	DFW 08:20	6%	3%	1.0%	87%
AA 2583 American Flight history →	BNA 07:04	DFW 09:18	6%	3%	1.1%	83%
AA 2510 American	BNA 08:54	DFW 11:01	9%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1103 American Flight history →	BNA 10:24	DFW 12:34	10%	4%	0.9%	84%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	BNA 12:40	DFW 14:47	11%	4%	0.9%	79%
AA 1084 American	BNA 15:33	DFW 17:39	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1199 American	BNA 19:31	DFW 21:38	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1181 American	BNA 16:51	DFW 18:58	19%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 1109 American	BNA 18:15	DFW 20:22	19%	5%	1.1%	no record
F9 3051 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 19:03	DFW 21:12	24%	7%	1.9%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON