Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2439 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 2439 BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 2316 BNA 17:40 → DTW 20:24 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2439 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:05	DTW 08:46	4%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 2682 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:06	DTW 12:46	9%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 550 Southwest	BNA 10:41	DTW 13:23	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1557 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:03	DTW 16:46	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 4968 Southwest	BNA 13:46	DTW 16:28	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 2316 Delta Flight history →	BNA 17:40	DTW 20:24	15%	4%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON