tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 830 Southwest BNA 08:11 ECP 09:42 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 409 Southwest BNA 11:46 ECP 13:17 9% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 38m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 4h 06m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 5h 18m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053 5h 17m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:33 → ECP 11:38AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 5h 37m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → BNA 11:51 → CLT 14:21AA 3328 2h 28m Charlotte CLT 16:49 → ECP 17:27AA 5297 · flown by PSA 5h 36m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:08 → IAH 17:19UA 2339 2h 42m Houston IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 50m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → BNA 11:22 → IAH 13:33UA 241 57m Houston IAH 14:30 → ECP 16:23UA 4902 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 01m 88% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 15:08 → IAH 17:19UA 2339 46m Houston IAH 18:05 → ECP 20:01UA 4043 · flown by Mesa 4h 53m 69% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON