Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3408 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–37%.

Safest bet that day YX 3408 BNA 07:20 → EWR 10:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2677 BNA 15:52 → EWR 19:18 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3408 Republic	BNA 07:20	EWR 10:56	7%	3%	2.2%	no record
UA 216 United	BNA 06:00	EWR 09:23	7%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 2485 United	BNA 09:31	EWR 12:53	13%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 2174 United Flight history →	BNA 13:15	EWR 16:37	25%	15%	0.9%	74%
UA 499 United Flight history →	BNA 19:25	EWR 22:48	33%	10%	0.8%	58%
UA 2677 United	BNA 15:52	EWR 19:18	37%	17%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON