Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 999 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 999 BNA 05:16 → FLL 08:36 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2582 BNA 14:27 → FLL 17:41 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 999 Southwest	BNA 05:16	FLL 08:36	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 558 Southwest	BNA 09:01	FLL 12:21	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 2482 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 07:50	FLL 11:04	14%	5%	1.5%	95%
WN 4732 Southwest	BNA 19:02	FLL 22:22	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2689 Southwest	BNA 14:11	FLL 17:31	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
G4 347 Allegiant	BNA 11:17	FLL 14:35	22%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 3249 Southwest	BNA 16:21	FLL 19:41	24%	6%	0.8%	no record
B6 2582 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 14:27	FLL 17:41	31%	12%	1.6%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON