tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4924 at 10:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4924 Southwest BNA 10:21 GSP 12:41 7% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 562 Southwest BNA 17:51 GSP 20:09 23% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greenville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Greenville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 54m Atlanta ATL 08:15 → GSP 09:13DL 3089 3h 03m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:16 → GSP 12:14DL 1725 4h 56m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 13:07 → GSP 14:01DL 1273 5h 29m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 15:07 → GSP 16:07DL 3095 5h 19m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:41 → GSP 13:09AA 3986 · flown by Envoy 6h 08m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → GSP 18:55DL 1021 5h 17m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → BNA 08:39 → CLT 11:12AA 966 1h 53m Charlotte CLT 13:05 → GSP 14:07AA 5805 · flown by Piedmont 4h 28m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557 3h 19m Detroit DTW 20:05 → GSP 21:47DL 1561 6h 44m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 16:56 → MIA 20:32AA 487 53m Miami MIA 21:25 → GSP 23:24AA 3435 · flown by Envoy 5h 28m 68% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON