Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 281 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 281 BNA 06:15 → IAH 08:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2339 BNA 15:08 → IAH 17:19 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 281 United	BNA 06:15	IAH 08:25	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 4746 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 08:47	IAH 10:57	10%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 241 United Flight history →	BNA 11:22	IAH 13:33	11%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 2490 United Flight history →	BNA 18:42	IAH 20:54	19%	5%	0.7%	76%
UA 2339 United Flight history →	BNA 15:08	IAH 17:19	19%	5%	0.6%	72%
UA 4005 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 08:40	IAH 11:02	31%	8%	0.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON