Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2448 at 12:56, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2448 Southwest	BNA 12:56	IND 15:10	12%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → IND 10:33DL 2952	4h 23m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 18m	99%	89%
United Details →	BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic	6h 23m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724	3h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → IND 18:22DL 1456	7h 19m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134	4h 31m	98%	86%
United Details →	BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709	1h 16m Dulles	IAD 12:33 → IND 14:27UA 3543 · flown by Republic	4h 57m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	6h 36m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 17:27 → IND 19:07DL 3120	5h 29m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa	53m Houston	IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687	5h 45m	64%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON