Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1227 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1227 BNA 05:09 → LAS 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3777 BNA 15:41 → LAS 17:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1227 Southwest	BNA 05:09	LAS 06:55	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 579 Southwest	BNA 08:09	LAS 09:58	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 580 Southwest	BNA 12:26	LAS 14:10	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 814 Southwest	BNA 18:51	LAS 20:41	25%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1653 Southwest	BNA 15:41	LAS 17:26	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 3777 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 15:41	LAS 17:40	26%	8%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON