Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 891 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 891 BNA 06:28 → LAX 08:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4416 BNA 16:46 → LAX 19:03 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 891 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:28	LAX 08:40	6%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 400 Southwest	BNA 08:06	LAX 10:25	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 355 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:59	LAX 17:10	11%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 687 Delta	BNA 19:17	LAX 21:31	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1100 American	BNA 17:15	LAX 19:39	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4416 Southwest	BNA 16:46	LAX 19:03	22%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON