Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 804 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33%.

Safest bet that day WN 804 BNA 06:31 → LGA 09:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1649 BNA 16:54 → LGA 20:12 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 804 Southwest	BNA 06:31	LGA 09:49	7%	1%	1.2%	no record
DL 1071 Delta	BNA 06:03	LGA 09:23	8%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 3314 American	BNA 06:11	LGA 09:46	10%	4%	1.7%	no record
DL 5638 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 09:05	LGA 12:33	13%	4%	1.5%	90%
YX 4622 Republic	BNA 10:34	LGA 14:02	18%	7%	1.7%	no record
WN 4734 Southwest	BNA 10:41	LGA 14:13	19%	7%	1.1%	no record
YX 5617 Republic	BNA 12:38	LGA 16:06	23%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 4411 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 13:56	LGA 17:33	26%	8%	1.3%	86%worse than usual
WN 2518 Southwest	BNA 13:41	LGA 16:59	27%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 4660 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 17:28	LGA 20:55	33%	10%	1.9%	67%
DL 1649 Delta	BNA 16:54	LGA 20:12	33%	12%	1.5%	no record
DL 4638 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 06:00	LGA 09:32	25%	10%	0.0%	75%
DL 5438 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 12:40	LGA 16:17	27%	12%	5.5%	73%
DL 5022 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 19:59	LGA 23:31	34%	16%	20.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON