Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1745 at 08:11, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1745 Southwest	BNA 08:11	LIT 09:35	4%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040	4h 45m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	49m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → LIT 08:42DL 3033	3h 32m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027	5h 24m	99%	90%
American Details →	BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:38 → LIT 12:58AA 3898 · flown by Envoy	5h 54m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → LIT 21:34DL 2701	6h 43m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → LIT 18:31DL 2061	5h 53m	98%	84%
American Details →	BNA 10:24 → DFW 12:34AA 1103	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:39 → LIT 16:59AA 4309 · flown by Envoy	6h 35m	97%	83%
United Details →	BNA 10:26 → DEN 12:23UA 502	57m Denver	DEN 13:20 → LIT 16:42UA 5760 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	87%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON