Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 606 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 606 BNA 08:15 → MCI 10:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 611 BNA 18:56 → MCI 20:45 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 606 Southwest	BNA 08:15	MCI 10:05	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2778 Southwest	BNA 11:41	MCI 13:30	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 609 Southwest	BNA 15:26	MCI 17:16	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 611 Southwest	BNA 18:56	MCI 20:45	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON