Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 615 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 615 BNA 05:34 → MCO 08:33 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1088 BNA 18:56 → MCO 21:55 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 615 Southwest	BNA 05:34	MCO 08:33	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 621 Southwest	BNA 07:04	MCO 10:03	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 888 Southwest	BNA 09:14	MCO 12:13	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 626 Southwest	BNA 12:01	MCO 15:00	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
F9 1286 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 11:12	MCO 14:25	12%	6%	0.7%	91%
WN 2808 Southwest	BNA 15:01	MCO 18:00	18%	5%	3.8%	no record
WN 4584 Southwest	BNA 17:56	MCO 20:55	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 3343 Southwest	BNA 16:36	MCO 19:35	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 1088 Southwest	BNA 18:56	MCO 21:55	19%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON