Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 652 at 08:11, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 652 Southwest	BNA 08:11	MEM 09:20	6%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 14m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071	4h 17m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	5h 28m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → MEM 14:15DL 733	4h 27m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	6h 13m	99%	86%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	1h 57m Denver	DEN 10:52 → MEM 14:18UA 2789	7h 18m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557	3h 19m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230	6h 58m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:34DL 3020	5h 43m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BNA 15:08 → IAH 17:19UA 2339	46m Houston	IAH 18:05 → MEM 19:54UA 6167 · flown by Mesa	4h 46m	69%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON