Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1342 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1342 BNA 05:39 → MIA 09:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 323 BNA 18:34 → MIA 21:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1342 American Flight history →	BNA 05:39	MIA 09:04	6%	2%	1.1%	92%
WN 2952 Southwest	BNA 12:16	MIA 15:37	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4123 Envoy	BNA 10:27	MIA 13:53	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 4779 Southwest	BNA 19:41	MIA 23:02	24%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 487 American Flight history →	BNA 16:56	MIA 20:32	25%	8%	1.1%	90%worse than usual
AA 323 American Flight history →	BNA 18:34	MIA 21:59	26%	8%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON