Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2221 BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 2612 BNA 18:45 → MSP 20:58 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2221 Delta Flight history →	BNA 06:00	MSP 08:10	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 4822 Southwest	BNA 08:21	MSP 10:36	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2724 Delta Flight history →	BNA 10:03	MSP 12:14	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2843 Delta Flight history →	BNA 16:00	MSP 18:14	12%	4%	0.6%	71%
DL 2612 Delta Flight history →	BNA 18:45	MSP 20:58	12%	4%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON