Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 664 Southwest	BNA 10:21	MYR 13:01	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4878 Southwest	BNA 19:11	MYR 21:50	16%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	5h 42m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047	4h 37m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	5h 29m	98%	80%
American Details →	BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39AA 2809	1h 14m Philadelphia	PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont	5h 34m	93%	77%
American Details →	BNA 11:51 → CLT 14:21AA 3328	3h 20m Charlotte	CLT 17:41 → MYR 18:52AA 1417	6h 01m	100%	76%
American Details →	BNA 11:29 → PHL 14:51AA 2605	1h 28m Philadelphia	PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont	5h 58m	96%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON