Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2987 at 16:06, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2987 Southwest	BNA 16:06	ONT 18:15	19%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	1h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:12DL 1173	6h 37m	95%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 28m	99%	88%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	2h 30m Denver	DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430	7h 47m	99%	85%
American Details →	BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583	2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635	8h 38m	100%	83%
American Details →	BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → ONT 12:10AA 2956	8h 09m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891	7h 52m	98%	78%
American Details →	BNA 12:40 → DFW 14:47AA 1396	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:58 → ONT 19:16AA 3006	8h 36m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281	1h 24m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → ONT 14:01AS 571	8h 59m	94%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON