Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4964 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 4964 BNA 05:05 → ORD 06:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 2112 BNA 16:00 → ORD 18:00 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4964 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 05:05	ORD 06:59	5%	3%	2.0%	71%
UA 529 United	BNA 05:55	ORD 07:53	6%	2%	1.1%	no record
UA 2465 United Flight history →	BNA 07:40	ORD 09:41	10%	4%	1.0%	83%
AA 1105 American	BNA 07:10	ORD 09:09	10%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 398 United	BNA 10:24	ORD 12:22	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2500 American Flight history →	BNA 09:18	ORD 11:10	13%	5%	0.7%	54%
UA 691 United	BNA 09:36	ORD 11:34	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 6273 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 10:37	ORD 12:31	17%	7%	1.4%	56%
UA 1616 United Flight history →	BNA 12:49	ORD 14:50	19%	7%	1.0%	81%
YX 3424 Republic	BNA 15:06	ORD 17:07	20%	6%	1.5%	no record
UA 1127 United Flight history →	BNA 18:30	ORD 20:28	29%	8%	0.9%	48%
AA 2126 American	BNA 17:35	ORD 19:35	29%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 1884 United Flight history →	BNA 16:59	ORD 19:00	29%	8%	1.0%	57%
AA 2112 American	BNA 16:00	ORD 18:00	34%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON