Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1715 at 14:46, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1715 Southwest	BNA 14:46	ORF 17:46	12%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755	5h 18m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:16DL 2925	6h 58m	100%	90%
United Details →	BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709	1h 48m Dulles	IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa	4h 47m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 10:03 → ORF 11:58DL 3066	4h 53m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	5h 02m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:30DL 2731	6h 39m	98%	85%
United Details →	BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 12:16 → ORF 15:41UA 2807	7h 01m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346	5h 16m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON