tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1477 Alaska BNA 17:11 PDX 19:55 19% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 2h 49m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:41DL 1661 8h 41m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 3h 44m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 9h 32m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27DL 539 7h 17m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 8h 40m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 35m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503 10h 02m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 32m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 8h 09m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BNA 10:26 → DEN 12:23UA 502 3h 37m Denver DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:46UA 1337 9h 20m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 1h 12m Chicago ORD 20:12 → PDX 22:47UA 2243 7h 48m 74% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON