Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2809 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2809 BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 419 BNA 15:31 → PHL 18:47 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2809 American Flight history →	BNA 06:28	PHL 09:39	8%	3%	1.1%	90%
WN 4879 Southwest	BNA 10:16	PHL 13:32	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2605 American Flight history →	BNA 11:29	PHL 14:51	13%	5%	0.8%	75%
OH 5358 PSA	BNA 08:56	PHL 12:08	14%	5%	1.7%	no record
AA 5580 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 20:01	PHL 23:10	16%	6%	2.1%	65%
AA 3249 American	BNA 13:34	PHL 16:56	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 868 American Flight history →	BNA 15:42	PHL 19:11	20%	6%	0.8%	62%
WN 419 Southwest	BNA 15:31	PHL 18:47	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON