Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2790 at 12:06, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2790 Southwest	BNA 12:06	PVD 15:41	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147	6h 19m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	1h 39m Detroit	DTW 10:25 → PVD 12:25DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	5h 20m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	5h 41m	98%	85%
American Details →	BNA 08:39 → CLT 11:12AA 966	2h 28m Charlotte	CLT 13:40 → PVD 15:58AA 2679	6h 19m	97%	84%
United Details →	BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709	1h 18m Dulles	IAD 12:35 → PVD 14:05UA 6262 · flown by Mesa	4h 35m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659	6h 31m	98%	81%
American Details →	BNA 11:51 → CLT 14:21AA 3328	1h 59m Charlotte	CLT 16:20 → PVD 18:30AA 2338	5h 39m	96%	78%
American Details →	BNA 15:42 → PHL 19:11AA 868	1h 20m Philadelphia	PHL 20:31 → PVD 21:53AA 3142	5h 11m	89%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON