Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 894 at 11:11, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 894 Southwest	BNA 11:11	PWM 14:54	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426	4h 50m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	5h 42m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821	4h 55m	95%	82%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	1h 05m Denver	DEN 10:00 → PWM 15:55UA 372	7h 55m	95%	81%
American Details →	BNA 08:39 → CLT 11:12AA 966	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 13:52 → PWM 16:31AA 1747	6h 52m	97%	80%
American Details →	BNA 09:18 → ORD 11:10AA 2500	1h 56m Chicago	ORD 13:06 → PWM 16:41AA 4741 · flown by Republic	6h 23m	96%	79%
United Details →	BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → PWM 14:31UA 2804	5h 51m	96%	78%
American Details →	BNA 05:05 → ORD 06:59AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → PWM 13:03AA 2717	6h 58m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BNA 18:27 → JFK 22:09DL 4909 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	JFK 22:59 → PWM 00:52 +1DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor	5h 25m	62%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON