tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 701 at 11:51 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 701 Southwest BNA 11:51 RIC 14:40 8% 3% 0.5% no record
G4 1937 Allegiant BNA 17:38 RIC 20:26 28% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 4h 38m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 12:32 → RIC 14:15DL 3152 5h 43m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 5h 35m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:06 → DTW 12:46DL 2682 1h 39m Detroit DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:05DL 3073 4h 59m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709 1h 43m Dulles IAD 13:00 → RIC 14:01UA 4535 · flown by GoJet 4h 31m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39AA 2809 3h 33m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → RIC 14:35AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont 7h 07m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 18:33 → RIC 20:16DL 1263 6h 38m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:05 → ORD 06:59AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Chicago ORD 09:05 → RIC 12:19AA 2737 6h 14m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 1h 01m Houston IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa 6h 31m 70% 62%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:00 → JFK 13:30DL 4919 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 14:20 → RIC 16:19DL 5301 · flown by Endeavor 5h 19m 69% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON