tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 711 Southwest BNA 08:15 SAT 10:36 3% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 2269 Southwest BNA 13:56 SAT 16:18 9% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 59m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676 4h 33m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 20m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724 2h 06m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 7h 08m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 3h 43m Houston IAH 14:45 → SAT 15:56UA 2030 7h 16m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 50m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 5h 49m 93% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 38m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 7h 23m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:12 → SAT 13:32AA 2768 6h 28m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 1h 06m Houston IAH 12:08 → SAT 13:17UA 6202 · flown by Mesa 4h 37m 75% 56%
UnitedDetails → BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884 58m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 5h 58m 68% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON