Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 717 at 10:16, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 717 Southwest	BNA 10:16	SDF 12:22	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → SDF 10:29DL 1374	4h 19m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	4h 33m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195	4h 54m	99%	88%
American Details →	BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	5h 47m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	6h 09m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → SDF 22:04DL 2842	6h 13m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	5h 55m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → SDF 19:22DL 2831	5h 44m	98%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON