Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 372 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 372 BNA 07:00 → SEA 09:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 1377 BNA 18:33 → SEA 21:15 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 372 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:00	SEA 09:59	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
AS 623 Alaska Flight history →	BNA 09:25	SEA 12:26	15%	3%	0.7%	85%
AS 281 Alaska Flight history →	BNA 07:02	SEA 10:04	19%	3%	0.7%	81%
AS 1377 Alaska	BNA 18:33	SEA 21:15	21%	4%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	55m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	6h 59m	95%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON