Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 626 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 626 BNA 08:05 → SFO 10:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 724 BNA 19:36 → SFO 22:08 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 626 United Flight history →	BNA 08:05	SFO 10:44	16%	5%	0.6%	81%
UA 581 United	BNA 14:50	SFO 17:38	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 276 United	BNA 19:07	SFO 21:45	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 724 Southwest	BNA 19:36	SFO 22:08	31%	10%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BNA 10:26 → DEN 12:23UA 502	1h 02m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	6h 43m	89%	68%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	48m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 25m	86%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON