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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:28, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2477 Southwest BNA 12:36 SJC 15:14 15% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 20m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 7h 00m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 01m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 9h 58m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 58m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 35m Denver DEN 11:30 → SJC 13:09UA 1256 8h 09m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:58 → SJC 13:56AA 2834 8h 52m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:25 → SJC 11:18AA 2046 7h 17m 95% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281 49m Seattle SEA 10:53 → SJC 12:58AS 658 7h 56m 66% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON