Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3091 Southwest	BNA 12:46	SMF 15:20	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904	7h 50m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 41m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	2h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	8h 09m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	10h 02m	98%	85%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	2h 46m Denver	DEN 11:41 → SMF 13:19UA 2673	8h 19m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743	9h 15m	98%	83%
United Details →	BNA 10:26 → DEN 12:23UA 502	3h 40m Denver	DEN 16:03 → SMF 17:41UA 1208	9h 15m	98%	80%
American Details →	BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583	2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:46 → SMF 13:31AA 2078	8h 27m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON