Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 732 Southwest	BNA 10:16	SRQ 13:16	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3364 Southwest	BNA 17:01	SRQ 20:13	19%	6%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	56m Atlanta	ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196	3h 42m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	4h 26m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:32 → ATL 09:45DL 2802	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:42 → SRQ 15:20DL 3115	6h 48m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	5h 21m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 29m	100%	88%
United Details →	BNA 07:40 → ORD 09:41UA 2465	1h 29m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	6h 32m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → LGA 09:32DL 4638 · flown by Endeavor	56m New York	LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412	6h 33m	75%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON