Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 148 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 148 BNA 05:01 → TPA 07:57 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2877 BNA 18:11 → TPA 21:06 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 148 Southwest	BNA 05:01	TPA 07:57	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 739 Southwest	BNA 09:26	TPA 12:20	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3642 Envoy	BNA 09:21	TPA 12:19	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 2651 Southwest	BNA 12:23	TPA 15:18	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3639 Envoy	BNA 14:20	TPA 17:14	20%	5%	1.5%	no record
WN 742 Southwest	BNA 15:25	TPA 18:19	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2877 Southwest	BNA 18:11	TPA 21:06	21%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON