tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4208 at 08:06, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4208 Southwest BNA 08:06 TUL 09:53 4% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 59m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18DL 2754 4h 08m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 5h 38m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 6h 05m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 1h 09m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 7h 10m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → BNA 12:40 → DFW 14:47AA 1396 3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → TUL 19:48AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 7h 08m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa 3h 33m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 35m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → BNA 10:26 → DEN 12:23UA 502 1h 17m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 6h 03m 92% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BNA 18:42 → IAH 20:54UA 2490 48m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 4h 33m 72% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON