Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 747 at 10:12, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 747 Southwest	BNA 10:12	TYS 12:14	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:32 → TYS 09:35DL 1817	3h 25m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743	3h 52m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148	4h 00m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44DL 3042	5h 06m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571	5h 22m	99%	84%
American Details →	BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:33 → TYS 12:51AA 2544	5h 50m	96%	82%
American Details →	BNA 08:39 → CLT 11:12AA 966	3h 12m Charlotte	CLT 14:24 → TYS 15:42AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont	6h 03m	98%	80%
United Details →	BNA 08:30 → IAD 11:17UA 1709	1h 33m Dulles	IAD 12:50 → TYS 14:27UA 6110 · flown by Mesa	4h 57m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON