Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5924 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 5924 BOI 05:00 → DEN 07:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2395 BOI 17:46 → DEN 19:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5924 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 05:00	DEN 07:05	3%	2%	0.4%	91%
UA 1782 United Flight history →	BOI 06:30	DEN 08:29	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 1895 Southwest	BOI 07:56	DEN 10:01	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3896 Southwest	BOI 10:41	DEN 12:47	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1139 United	BOI 10:25	DEN 12:36	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4231 Southwest	BOI 15:51	DEN 17:56	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 2173 United Flight history →	BOI 14:41	DEN 16:40	21%	7%	0.6%	76%
UA 2395 United Flight history →	BOI 17:46	DEN 19:45	25%	7%	0.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON