Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1107 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1107 American Flight history →	BOI 06:21	DFW 10:34	6%	2%	0.8%	88%
AA 2019 American	BOI 13:52	DFW 18:18	23%	6%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173	2h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	6h 30m	99%	89%
United Details →	BOI 05:00 → DEN 07:05UA 5924 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DFW 12:39UA 1350	6h 39m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOI 05:30 → MSP 09:10DL 2808	53m Minneapolis	MSP 10:03 → DFW 12:29DL 2970	5h 59m	95%	86%
United Details →	BOI 06:30 → SFO 07:30UA 4678 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m San Francisco	SFO 08:33 → DFW 14:25UA 1062	6h 55m	97%	85%
American Details →	BOI 08:07 → PHX 09:34AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Phoenix	PHX 12:10 → DFW 16:38AA 2905	7h 31m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	BOI 08:57 → PDX 09:33AS 3495 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Portland	PDX 10:45 → DFW 16:42AS 392	6h 45m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	BOI 11:01 → SLC 12:25DL 1744	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → DFW 17:33DL 2811	5h 32m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	BOI 06:02 → PDX 06:28AS 782	50m Portland	PDX 07:18 → DFW 13:08AS 376	6h 06m	90%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON