Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4516 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 4516 BOI 06:11 → LAS 07:13 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1934 BOI 14:44 → LAS 15:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4516 Southwest	BOI 06:11	LAS 07:13	1%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2530 Southwest	BOI 12:03	LAS 13:05	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3121 SkyWest	BOI 13:27	LAS 14:34	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
F9 1934 Frontier	BOI 14:44	LAS 15:55	23%	11%	1.4%	no record
AS 2087 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 16:15	LAS 17:12	16%	8%	3.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON