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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 13:29, is the safest bet: 97% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon 3h 46m Portland PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon 6h 54m 99% 97%
DeltaDetails → BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173 3h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest 6h 46m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → BOI 11:01 → SLC 12:25DL 1744 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest 6h 20m 99% 90%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229 3h 09m Portland PDX 19:54 → OAK 21:41AS 2036 · flown by Horizon 6h 18m 98% 88%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 13:06 → SEA 13:40AS 2235 · flown by Horizon 3h 01m Seattle SEA 16:41 → OAK 18:42AS 1328 6h 36m 100% 69%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 08:03 → SEA 08:34AS 345 2h 27m Seattle SEA 11:01 → OAK 13:03AS 533 6h 00m 99% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON