Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5386 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 5386 BOI 08:25 → ORD 13:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2353 BOI 15:19 → ORD 20:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5386 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:25	ORD 13:10	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 642 United	BOI 12:26	ORD 17:02	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 2353 American Flight history →	BOI 15:19	ORD 20:00	20%	5%	0.6%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOI 05:30 → MSP 09:10DL 2808	50m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → ORD 11:32DL 1567	5h 02m	92%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON