Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 762 at 05:42 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 762 BOI 05:42 → PHX 07:01 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3492 BOI 16:46 → PHX 18:04 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 762 Southwest	BOI 05:42	PHX 07:01	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3675 Envoy	BOI 06:33	PHX 07:50	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 202 Southwest	BOI 11:21	PHX 12:41	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 6439 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:07	PHX 09:34	10%	4%	0.5%	100%
OO 4919 SkyWest	BOI 17:24	PHX 18:51	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 4080 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOI 13:53	PHX 15:10	20%	5%	0.6%	71%
WN 3492 Southwest	BOI 16:46	PHX 18:04	24%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON