Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 739 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day AS 739 BOI 06:25 → SEA 06:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 565 BOI 16:12 → SEA 16:42 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 739 Alaska	BOI 06:25	SEA 06:56	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 118 SkyWest	BOI 06:47	SEA 07:28	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3740 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:42	SEA 09:30	17%	4%	0.5%	85%
DL 3750 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 10:35	SEA 11:26	18%	5%	0.6%	92%
AS 345 Alaska Flight history →	BOI 08:03	SEA 08:34	21%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 4127 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 18:07	SEA 18:42	22%	6%	0.6%	83%
OO 183 SkyWest	BOI 12:14	SEA 12:55	23%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 3916 SkyWest	BOI 15:25	SEA 16:06	23%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 595 Alaska	BOI 14:13	SEA 14:42	28%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 1342 Alaska	BOI 17:51	SEA 18:22	29%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 565 Alaska	BOI 16:12	SEA 16:42	29%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 2070 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 08:15	SEA 08:50	12%	4%	0.0%	88%
AS 2235 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 13:06	SEA 13:40	13%	0%	0.0%	87%
AS 2159 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 11:42	SEA 12:16	19%	0%	0.0%	81%
AS 2352 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 20:47	SEA 21:21	40%	15%	2.0%	60%
AS 2166 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 10:00	SEA 10:34	56%	0%	0.0%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON