Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 4678 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 4678 BOI 06:30 → SFO 07:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 3025 BOI 10:52 → SFO 11:49 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4678 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 06:30	SFO 07:30	4%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 4661 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 14:00	SFO 14:58	20%	12%	0.6%	48%
UA 743 United	BOI 18:57	SFO 20:05	22%	12%	0.7%	no record
UA 4639 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 08:28	SFO 09:41	24%	11%	0.5%	48%
AS 3025 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 10:52	SFO 11:49	26%	12%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON