tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AS 1703 at 10:55 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1703 Alaska BOI 10:55 SNA 12:13 16% 4% 0.7% no record
G4 1603 Allegiant BOI 18:16 SNA 19:41 32% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BOI 08:07 → PHX 09:34AA 6439 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 11:14 → SNA 12:53AA 1656 5h 46m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → DEN 08:29UA 1782 2h 51m Denver DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320 7h 21m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 08:57 → PDX 09:33AS 3495 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Portland PDX 10:38 → SNA 13:15AS 588 5h 18m 95% 82%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 11:42 → SEA 12:16AS 2159 · flown by Horizon 1h 46m Seattle SEA 14:02 → SNA 16:54AS 773 6h 12m 100% 82%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 13:06 → SEA 13:40AS 2235 · flown by Horizon 3h 42m Seattle SEA 17:22 → SNA 19:58AS 687 7h 52m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → BOI 06:00 → SLC 07:11DL 2173 49m Salt Lake City SLC 08:00 → SNA 08:54DL 1198 3h 54m 94% 81%
AlaskaDetails → BOI 13:29 → PDX 13:47AS 2209 · flown by Horizon 1h 01m Portland PDX 14:48 → SNA 17:19AS 264 4h 50m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → BOI 06:30 → SFO 07:30UA 4678 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → SNA 12:06UA 643 6h 36m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON