Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1410 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 1410 BOS 06:30 → AUS 09:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 1677 BOS 18:59 → AUS 22:26 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1410 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:30	AUS 09:44	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 1297 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:25	AUS 16:46	26%	8%	0.7%	76%
B6 1439 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:05	AUS 13:18	29%	8%	1.5%	88%worse than usual
WN 3347 Southwest	BOS 15:11	AUS 18:22	34%	10%	0.7%	no record
DL 1677 Delta Flight history →	BOS 18:59	AUS 22:26	35%	11%	0.7%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 07m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → AUS 10:56UA 637	6h 11m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:05 → JFK 10:24DL 5720 · flown by Republic	46m New York	JFK 11:10 → AUS 14:06DL 2323	6h 01m	79%	65%
American Details →	BOS 13:11 → DFW 16:24AA 1438	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:16 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	6h 11m	78%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON