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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Asheville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 09:58 → AVL 11:07DL 3059 5h 37m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182 6h 27m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099 6h 40m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → BOS 08:05 → CLT 10:30AA 2715 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont 6h 14m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 16:11 → AVL 17:20DL 3101 7h 05m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 19:37 → AVL 20:41DL 3071 6h 46m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324 1h 00m Chicago ORD 08:04 → AVL 10:50AA 3963 · flown by Envoy 5h 40m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:55 → PHL 07:35AA 1540 1h 10m Philadelphia PHL 08:45 → AVL 10:52AA 6091 · flown by Piedmont 4h 57m 94% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON