Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 778 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 778 BOS 05:01 → BNA 06:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 907 BOS 18:46 → BNA 20:31 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 778 Southwest	BOS 05:01	BNA 06:39	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2650 Southwest	BOS 09:41	BNA 11:19	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BOS 08:20	BNA 10:16	15%	4%	0.6%	79%
B6 1807 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:26	BNA 08:08	16%	3%	1.0%	88%
DL 2677 Delta Flight history →	BOS 14:40	BNA 16:36	21%	7%	0.6%	76%
WN 781 Southwest	BOS 12:56	BNA 14:35	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
B6 407 JetBlue	BOS 13:41	BNA 15:24	28%	11%	1.0%	no record
DL 2586 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:45	BNA 21:49	32%	12%	0.6%	60%
WN 784 Southwest	BOS 18:06	BNA 19:47	39%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 1292 Southwest	BOS 19:31	BNA 21:12	39%	15%	0.6%	no record
B6 907 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:46	BNA 20:31	43%	16%	1.1%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON